Freddy Peralta is due to lose a game for the Rays. Since being acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline, Peralta has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs, bailed out by the Rays' lineup. Trevor Rogers has been stout down the stretch for Baltimore, holding four of the past five lineups he's faced to 2 earned runs or less. Ultimately, the Orioles lose this matchup 5-4 in extra innings.
Score prediction: Rays 5, Orioles 4
💰 Orioles vs. Rays prediction & best bet
Orioles +1.5 (-175)
Baltimore is currently in win-now mode, while the Rays sit comfortably atop the American League. There's definitely more urgency with the Orioles, who also hold a pitching edge with Trevor Rogers on the mound.
Rogers ranks 82nd in chase rate (33.9) and 76th percentile for walk rate (6.8) in 2026. He doesn't put a lot of traffic on base, which is why he's sitting in the 58th percentile for pitching run value (4) this season. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta's pitching run value is -14 (6th percentile) for the Rays.
Head to DraftKings and lay the juice with the Orioles +1.5 at -175 odds
